Making Your Own Luck

Gary Player once remarked "It's funny, the more I practise, the luckier I get". So should a failed entrepreneur be given a second chance? The argument goes that you learn valuable learn valuable lessons from failure, so you should be more likely to succeed second time around. But others argue that experience gained from one failed business is unlikely to apply to a second, due to the unpredictability of chance. "You can't learn to win the lottery" No, but if you are lucky you can influence the amount you win (my tip, don't select the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 as 10,000 others have then!).

Getting into a position to profit from being a little bit lucky is probably was differentiates successful entrepreneurs, but no one is lucky all of the time. So whether you eventually profit from a bit of good business fortune is very much down to the experience of the management team. All you can do is deal yourself a good hand, but whether you win a particular pot or hole a specific putt is partially down to fate. Embracing this risk is what equity investing is all about. So if anyone says they have only been associated with success they have either are a one-trick pony or very, very lucky! In business, lessons are best learned from those who have been mainly successful...

Nothing Ventured...

Deirdre Bounds gave a passionate talk at the Venturefest Yorkshire 2008 dinner. As a former stand up comic I expected a few more laughs, but she mainly focused on her journey from 'bedsit to boardroom'.

What was her take home message? Well mainly that if you have got an idea just do it, even if no one around you gets it: if you believe in yourself you can succeed in realising your vision. This was rather at odds with Ajaz Ahmed's talk earlier in the day where he was lamblasting government support agencies for backing 'lame duck' ideas that were destined to fail and that people shouldn't be given 'false hope' that they can become 'supermodels'

I must admit to being more with Deirdre on this one. Sure, we need to screen out the ideas and people that are just plain daft and applaud the ones that are sure fire winners (because they, like Deirdre, will fly without any outside help or an outside investor getting a slice of the action). But in the beauty contest that is innovation and enterprise, the winners and losers will sort themselves out in the marketplace (think dancefloor, not stage). Out there it's execution and the audience vote that counts: the wisdom of crowds, not the opinion of experts. In my experience, most good ideas start off looking pretty ugly or just plain daft to conventional eyes. As Deirdre says 'We need to encourage weird'.

Something for Nothing...

Surely the best deal is the one that generates the greatest return on investment. But those apparently in the know keep telling me Proof-of-Concept funds can't make money. But aren't business angels tying to make money and they are managing their own mini -POC fund. If you can make money on a small scale why, I ask, doesn't this scale up?

If you watch Dragon's Den they are always looking for the largest percentage of equity they can get. But 100% of nothing is still nothing, so you could say that it doesn’t matter whether you get 20% or 40% (this has been the argument of a few VCs who seem to cut much more generous offers than the dragons do) given most will fail.

Surely the point is that for the 1 in 10 early stage deals that really do fly, what percentage you have of that one is very much the differentiator when you come to analysing the overall portfolio returns. Is the problem then that larger funds just aren't prepared to get down and dirty with regards to valuations whereas individual business angels are very much focused on getting more for less? The fact that an early stage business will often get the cheapest money it's going to get i.e. grant funding followed immediately by the most expensive in terms of equity investment does little to help the situation!

Selling Equity: The First Resort

Selling equity in your business is hard, expensive and like oil, it's not a renewable resource. If you have any other easier or cheap alternative source of financing your business you should take it, but equally if you don't, do you really want to miss out on realising your dreams by preciously holding on to it - which is what far too many people do.

In business, a smaller slice of a bigger pie is invariably bigger than 100% of nothing. But therein lies the rub: An equity investor is looking to invest in a business that is scalable i.e. it can grow beyond being a 'lifestyle' business. So if you are serious about changing the world, gaining an equity investment should be your first and highest priority, as this is your only realistic means taking your business to the next level.

Our experience is that you can't be too prepared and our investment readiness process is invaluable in putting the foundations in place on which you can confidently pitch for the investment you need. How much is usually the next question. The reality is you need to find a balance between seeking too little and too much. This is where a business plan with realistic cash flow projections comes in. You need to have enough equity funding to meet you maximum cash requirement to get your product or service to market. Once you start selling something and you (just) need working capital, your funding options are cheaper & more varied: Factoring, overdraft, loans, etc.

Beating A Path To Your Door

Interesting post on TechCrunch on the top ten tips for startups. Not so sure about tip 9: "Don’t plan a big marketing effort. It’s much more important and powerful that your community loves the product."

The biggest mistake a startup can make is to believe if you create a better mousetrap, customers will beat a path to your door. Yes, if it’s a totally great or revolutionary idea maybe word of mouth will out, but the reality is that for us mere morals, we need to find a balance between developing an even better product and selling what we have.

Remember: out of 10 people, one will buy your product just for the hell of it (or they thought it was something it wasn’t); one will never buy it no matter how good it is; and the other eight could generally take it or leave it. How many of those eight you convert into customers, and at what cost, will dictate how successful you ultimately are.

Our FastInvest loan scheme is designed to give young technologies that push needed to get out there marketing and selling their product. Yes, make it better, but it's never too soon to start validating market demand and selling!

New Year Predictions

OK here goes:

Connect Yorkshire helps even more companies get investment ready and pitch for investment through its flagship investment forums, investment challenges and business plan competitions.

The rest of the Northern Way embrace the Connect model and it is rolled out in the North East and North West.

An online community of best practise, participation and support develops that brings together entrepreneurs with the resources to they need to help them succeed that extends beyond our traditional geographic boundary and the Web 2.0 community.

Yorkshire Forward announces a region-wide investment fund as a follow on for Partnership Investment Finance and the South Yorkshire Investment Fund that incorporates a much needed seedcorn element.

Component-based, service-oriented applications finally take centre stage with Web Mashups and loosely-coupled applications 'Web 2.0' increasingly replacing the monoliths of the past.

Connect launches its 'Springboard' initiative to help early stage propositions get their business plans into shape.

I finally access and use a Web site in a meaningful way through my mobile phone.

One can but dream...Happy New Year!

Convergence: Jack of All Trades or Master of One?

The whole TV/Broadband/Mobile/MP3 world sees to be heading for one point on the sunrise aimed at producing one appliance that is all things to all men: Whether its one box or one handset it has to do it all. This reminds me of the eternal battle ensuing in the software space between ERP systems (get you systems and processes right, then pore concrete on them) versus best-of-bread applications (malleable components linked together using open integration technologies allowing swap and change). It invariably boils down to whether you want something that is 90% good at doing lots of things or many things that are 100% good at doing just one.

In an earlier post, I talked about focus, focus, focus. Think of the last 10% being innovation and the 90% being the existing substance. For some markets the benefits of the innovation offset the complexity of having multiple vendors; for others simplicity and consistency is the name of the game. For most innovators, a market that has developed to this point of maturity is not a good place to be as you will face an uphill battle to see off the entrenched competition who will undoubtedly cover more bases than you do. So you need to find a peripheral market, which is undoubtedly smaller, where your value proposition can hold sway against the entrenched competition. When you are starting out, don't seek to be a jack of all trades, be master of one.

First Mover Disadvantage

One of the interesting themes discussed at TechTalk in association with our Investment Forum in Sheffield yesterday was that he who dares doesn't always win. Being first to market can mean you do all the R&D, validate the idea and educate potential users only to see the competition eat your carefully prepared lunch. Equally, being best technically doesn't necessarily equal success either.

As Lee Strafford emphasised as he spoke about his success story at Plusnet, route to market can be a real differentiator when it comes to execution. Stuart Green CEO of ZOO Digital warned that while you are evangelising about how beneficial your innovation will be to users, potential competitors will be readying themselves to shoot arrows in your back. And Steve Barnes, CEO of Infoserve reminded us that history is littered with those that tried first and failed or thought being (second) best equals success. Oracle didn't have the first relational database and VHS wasn't the best video technology, but each ended up the 800lb gorillas in their respective markets.

Being at the bleeding, rather than the leading, edge can leave you exposed if the market or infrastructure just ain't ready. Equally stealing a march on the competition is what innovation is all about, so this all has to be finely judged. Being first or best certainly isn't a prerequisite for commercial success.

There Be Dragons Ahead

At the Business North West event, Doug Richards of Dragon's Den fame gave a inspirational talk charting his ups and downs (yes even he has them!). Mainly anecdotal, but some of his take home messages that particularly resonated with me were:

1. Luck and serendipity plays its part in any successful venture; the path to greatness is not deterministic. Deal with it.


2. Don't only listen to those that have only tasted success; they are the exceptions not the rule. Also take council from people that have tasted failure as well. Inductive learning requires negatives as well as positives.


3. Yes, have a cunning well thought-out plan but be prepared to deviate from it as necessary (recognising this is not what funders necessarily want to hear): The reality is that you have to be flexible and opportunitistic (which is what the big boys aren't, so you have the advantage).


4. Cash and share price are not equivalent currency: Market Cap ain't worth anything until you have exited with money in the bank.
   
5. Leadership is about enpowerment. "Ask for my forgiveness not my permission". The founder/CEO should strive to be operationally redundant - he or she is generally not replicatable nor reliable. Surround yourself with people more able than you!

Yorkshire Means Business

Nice to see former Yorkshire Post Business Editor David Parkin's new venture hit the streets (OK its virtual equivalent!) this week. http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/ aims to bring news, information and events about and for the business community based in Yorkshire. Needless to say I have signed up for news alerts and it will be interesting to see how this venture progresses versus more traditional publications, not least the YP!

As with my previous post on monetising online communities, the key to such a venture will be how to produce content at reasonable cost and in the business model who pays for what, when. I am sure he has done his numbers -particularly as Colin Glass is his Finance Director!

The Second Bounce

Ronald Cohen of Apex fame argues in his new book that the everyone can see the first bounce of the ball; it's the second bounce that is uncertain. And it is only in situations of uncertainty that significant investment gains can be made. Well I beg to differ - until you bounce the ball once there is the highest degree of uncertainty - one can only guess at the outcome. Once you have seen a bounce, you have data to predict pretty well what the next bounce will do and even fix things that fall flat!

Releasing Version 1 of a product into a market is always the most uncertain stage. Once users have something to play with they can give you feedback and the whole market research process can be brought to bear on the problem. When all you have is ideas, hand waving and hopefully some passion and a committed team, most potential users will still just stare back blankly at you - they ain't good at looking at a blank canvas and saying what will make it a masterpiece.

That thought dovetails pretty nicely with a talk I caught on the first bounce at BarCamp Leeds on Saturday on the futility of trying to predict the future. Sure, it's hard but unless you can make an educated guess at where things are going how can you ever hope to align the technology idea you are working on with what the future holds. That said, the prevailing view was that the best way of predicting the future is to implement it!

Monetising Digital Communities

With the rise of Web 2.0 promoting participation, sharing and collaboration it still requires that someone pays for it all. Advertisers may now be able to target viewers by their individual profile and as pay per view gives way to pay per response the theory goes that communities means money. Subscriptions are another way of generating revenue and the great thing about online is that you can collect this little and often or integrate a smorgasbord of premium services at a price, while maintain the ethos of everything being free at the point of delivery. Taking a percentage requires an online transaction, but for some communities this may be part of the business model. How to gain users is always the first challenge, but how to turn users into revenue is always a bigger one!

The likes of YouTube, MySpace and Facebook (Microfoft paid about $500 per user for their stake) can put of the day they make a buck (although with the fikkle nature of consumers they might need to hurry it up) , but for others the balance between building a community and getting paid in something other than spirit is a little more pressing.

Investor Readiness

The Sunday Times featured an interesting article on Investor Readiness that echoed many of the experiences that we find with people who go through our IRP programme. These are given by experienced professionals and business people who give their time freely to help young technology entrepreneurs understand their proposition from the perspective of an investor. The lessons learnt are invaluable as is the ability to share experiences with other people following a similar journey and seasoned professionals that have heard it all before. Our next IRP workshops are being held in Sheffield on the 7th and 14th November. If you fancy coming along, please contact us.

The Value Of Networks

Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of those involved. The number of unique connections in a network of a number of nodes (n) can be expressed mathematically as n*(n-1)/2. Perversely, the basic tenet of modern organisational theory is how to manage this complexity and structure companies so that as they grow this proliferation of connections is managed effectively.

However, when it comes to the virtual world the more the merrier is usually the case and only when an application focused on participation and involvement reaches a certain critical mass do those involved start to interact effectively. This relates to the fact that although the number of potential connections may be large, the number of relevant connections may be much smaller. Obviously if we are talking about directed connections i.e. you know the number or address of the person you want to 'call' then all is fine and dandy, but much of the success of tools like LinkedIn and FaceBook relates to the ability of the software to facilitate members of the network finding like minded people to interact with and build up connections based on declarative information embedded in profiles. The success of using structured information to facilitate or prompt interactions is a major development over traditional web-based directory listings.

If you also think about the comparison to physical networking - what is the chance of bumping into someone at an event are inversely linked to the paucity of the network, so the focus is to maximise the focus. With online networks the goal is to maximise the number of participants and ensure relevant people find each other using the functionality of the site. With our new resource portal http://www.mydealmaker.co.uk/ we are trying to balance the focus on signing up more users with efforts to improve the functionality of the site so that users find connections of interest as the beta progresses.


By the way, we are looking for participants for focus groups to be held over lunch from 12.30-2.30pm on Wednesday 31st October and Monday 5th November at our offices in Leeds. The aim of this is to help inform our strategy for provision of online services with specific focus on our new opportunities portal http://www.mydealmaker.co.uk/. We realize this is short notice, but if you can spare the time we really would appreciate your input. We promise no homework is involved! If you would like to have your say in a physical way, please email us.

Focus, Focus, Focus

In real estate investment the mantra is location, location, location but for a startup company it should be focus, focus, focus. Far too many companies bite off more than they can chew even before they have cut their milk teeth. While big markets numbers may turn some people on, it's always better to be a master of one.

This is what Ev Williams (founder of Blogger & Twitter) has to say about this:
“Focus on the smallest possible problem you could solve that would potentially be useful. Most companies start out trying to do too many things. Focusing on a small niche has so many advantages: With much less work, you can be the best at what you do. Small things, like a microscopic world, almost always turn out to be bigger than you think when you zoom in. You can much more easily position and market yourself when more focused. And when it comes to partnering, or being acquired, there’s less chance for conflict. This is all so logical and, yet, there’s a resistance to focusing. I think it comes from a fear of being trivial. Just remember: If you get to be #1 in your category, but your category is too small, then you can broaden your scope—and you can do so with leverage.”

Most businesses need to cross the chasm from early adopters to the mainstream and that's a lot easier when you have a whole product however small, then you can start to add +1 extensions to grow your market. The downside of trying to calve off too large a slice of market real estate too early is that you never have enough substance in any specific area to transition your product or service to the mainstream which is where you will make your money - however big or small your target market is.

Taxing Times

The Chancellor's decision to change the Chapital Gains Tax (CGT) rate to a flat 18% and abolish taper relief seems like a gut reaction to the fact that private equity bosses are only paying 10% on their 'carry' on successful investments. Caught in the cross fire are entrepreneurs that now are going to have to pay nearly twice as much tax on exit. The fact that the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) allows up to £400K of any gain to be rolled over into a new venture softens the blow, but these changes that come in in April 2008 give a big incentive to exit before then!

Online Research Versus Legwork

There seems to be an increasing trend to research opportunities online before expending too much physical effort evaluating the options. Who last went looking around a new neighbourhood looking for houses, rather than first having a trawl of Rightmove? Tesco have just launch a new comparision website to compete with the likes of MoneySupermarket. So there must be money in them there hills. And with MyDealMaker debuting, even venture capitalists and angel investors can get in on the act and search for entreprenurs with big ideas looking for funding that meet their search criteria.

Where will it all end? In the lead, not supprisingly, is Formula One. Car design is apparently moving from using computer simulation to validate an hypothesis to ab initio models where nothing physical is made until the computer says yes. Drug design has similarly embraced the idea that sampling chemical space is best done virtually before that expensive step of synthesising anything is taken and anyone gets their hands dirty.

Who, thirty years ago, would have believed that computers would be used for screening potential dates/mates before 'pressing the flesh'! And if you had said we would all be texting like mad, rather than videoconferencing by now you would have been laughed out of the room. As the BT futureologist at a recent YSTN event commented, maybe we should be employing more phycologists to help design new products, rather than leaving this entirely to the technologists!

Developing an Innovation Strategy

Rob Hulme from Smith & Nephew spoke at the first of our Business Fitness workshops in Hull on developing an innovation strategy. He emphasised their strategy has moved from closed innovation to a more open approach to embrace ideas from outside. Another of his themes was the concept of teamwork and cross-functional approaches noting that breakthroughs often occur at the interface between two disciplines.

A interesting observation was on the competing pressures of Process & Bureaucracy and Passion & Anarchy that a company needs to find an appropriate balance between to maximise its potential. Too much bureaucracy and innovation risks being stiffled in favour of the status quo. But equally too many mavericks trying to change and tinker with things then chaos reins.

This complemented my discussion in the previous session on Business Strategy & Planning where I focused on the chasm between Visionaries and Pragmatists. Visionaries are by definition more driven by passion and a quest for radical improvement, whereas Pragmatists are looking for more incremental, managed evolution to improve the current situation. Most managers coming from larger companies have these pragmatic skills in spades, but may lack the open mindedness and willingness to experiment and even fail that sets out the visionaries from the rest.

There are four more seminars in the series which promise to be equally inspiring! Click here to find out more...

What Is The Optimal Length Of A Queue?

There is a fine line in business between having satisfied customers and happy ones. If all your customers are too happy you are probably not charging enough for your product and service or indeed doing too much for them for too little. This can be a difficult habit to break, but can be the difference between success and failure.

Early in my career I worked for a software company that everyone loved, they just didn't make any money and were taken over by another company that did. The only difference I could make out between the two was the one that was successful charged their customers for everything they could and should. The other went out of its way to keep its customers happy, but didn't charge them enough for the privilege.

Do you want to be liked or respected in business? If it's the former, you probably think the answer to the question posed is zero. If it's the latter, a better answer is three...

That Original Idea

As we embark on our InvestorQuest Challenge, we ask are you like John Nash in A Beautiful Mind (looking for that original idea that will be the basis of your business, rather than just delusional). Surprisingly, good ideas for a business are often less than original and are often pretty simple. In 1978 (yes, nearly thirty years ago) I wrote a program to play blackjack, so you could blame my 'idea' for all those Internet betting sites out there today. Simon Nixon, the founder of moneysupermarket.com, had a brilliantly simple idea to provide consumers with independent comparison of insurance products that he took from inception through to a £1B stock market flotation.

What differentiates those that succeed is often not the idea for the business, but their single minded focus to exploit an idea and find an addressable market for it. Turning a fledgling idea into a marketable product is the key and so is avoiding the pitfalls along the way. That's why when asked whether an investor is more interested in the idea or the management, often the answer is the latter. Good ideas are surprisingly plentiful, it's the ability to execute that maketh the business. That said, you need an idea!